09-17-2015, 01:25 PM
Thu Sep 17, 2015 | 8:48 AM EDT
By Angus McDowall
RIYADH (Reuters) -
The relative youth and almost unprecedented power shared by the two heirs to the Saudi throne mean they are likely to dominate the kingdom's politics for decades, putting their pivotal relationship increasingly under scrutiny.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, 56, and
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
30, are next in line to succeed 79-year-old King Salman in ruling the world's top oil exporter, as it faces regional turmoil and low crude oil prices.
People who have attended meetings between
the two cousins describe their public interactions as cordial and respectful, but such
accounts have done little to stem suspicions
among some Saudis that this apparently
amicable facade hides a more fractious relationship.
The elder prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, is a
widely respected veteran of Saudi politics while the younger royal is a relatively inexperienced but favored son of the king.
Although Saudis are well accustomed to
factionalizm among the Al Saud dynasty's
hundreds of princes, several well-connected
Saudis said the relationship between the two
men was simply too sensitive a subject to
discuss openly.
However, some did acknowledge hearing about underlying friction but refused to be any more specific.
Last week, King Salman removed Saad al-Jabri, an aide of the crown prince, from his role as a minister of state, a move that was not officially explained, and led to speculation among Saudis and Gulf-based diplomats that it reflected wider tension within the ruling elite.
There was no official comment to explain his
removal.
Harmony and stability at the top have rarely
been more important for Saudi Arabia as it
attempts to navigate regional conflict and the
economic fallout from tumbling crude prices
while managing leadership change.
Since he took power in January, King Salman
has overturned expectations of how the
kingdom conducts its business, changing the
line of succession, launching a military
operation in Yemen and endorsing an oil
strategy that has let prices fall.
That new approach appears to owe much to
the two Prince Mohammeds, who between them now control most levers of power via a pair of government supercommittees on security and the economy, while most other Al Saud members have been sidelined.
Observers heralded a departure from the
previous era to more pro-active policies after
years of paralysis, citing the power of the
princes.
DYNASTIC POLITICS
The prominence of the two Prince Mohammeds means that any moves at the top of the Saudi government, particularly any involving Al Saud members or close aides to either of Salman's named successors, will be closely watched.
The removal of Jabri, who even in 2006 was
described by U.S. diplomats in a Riyadh
embassy cable later released by WikiLeaks as
Mohammed bin Nayef's "go to" man on a range of issues and a key member of the prince's staff, was just such an event.
If the crown prince's other key aide, Khalid al-
Humaidan, who was made intelligence chief in
January, were replaced, for instance, then
speculation about friction at the top, and rumors about new changes in the line of succession, might grow.
Dynastic squabbling brought down a Saudi state in the 1880s. In the last century, King Saud's efforts to limit the line of succession to his own sons, cutting out brothers and nephews, contributed to the family forcing him from power in 1962, so such things are keenly watched.
Tension between the family's different wings
are usually open secrets, talked about in private and denied in public, while the Al Saud present an appearance of unity, an approach that has sometimes backfired by letting speculation flourish.
EXPERIENCE AND YOUTH
There were reassuring noises about the new
power structure. "I think it's a good working relationship. Necessity demands it, and Mohammed bin Nayef is a highly respected person and in this society there is a lot of deference to age," said Khaled al-Maeena, editor at large of the English-language daily Saudi Gazette.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who has
also been interior minister since 2013, is close
to Washington, crushed an al Qaeda uprising
while running internal security a decade ago
and barely escaped assassination by a jihadist
suicide bomber in 2010.
As head of the security committee, he oversees most political issues, including anything relating to the kingdom's internal stability or regional position and its support for Syrian rebels.
When Salman placed him in the line of
succession as deputy crown prince on
assuming power in January, and then moved
him up another notch in April, it was no real
surprise given the interior minister's high profile and background in top jobs.
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
by contrast, has enjoyed a dizzying rise since
his father became king and promoted him from
head of his personal court to defense minister
and then second-in-line, bypassing scores of
uncles and cousins.
He is in charge of a council tasked with
addressing long-term economic development
challenges, such as those posed by declining
crude revenue, and theoretically oversees
fiscal, energy, monetary and educational
policies.
That clear division of responsibilities, the 25-
year age gap between the two and Mohammed bin Nayef's lack of sons mean the pair would not necessarily be direct rivals for power because Mohammed bin Salman can count on a long run after his cousin.
A Saudi source, who declined to be named, said relations amongst the royals were good. "The great majority of the family is settled. The powerful princes are happy," the source said.
(Additional reporting by William Maclean in
Dubai; Editing by Dominic Evans)
By Angus McDowall
RIYADH (Reuters) -
The relative youth and almost unprecedented power shared by the two heirs to the Saudi throne mean they are likely to dominate the kingdom's politics for decades, putting their pivotal relationship increasingly under scrutiny.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, 56, and
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
30, are next in line to succeed 79-year-old King Salman in ruling the world's top oil exporter, as it faces regional turmoil and low crude oil prices.
People who have attended meetings between
the two cousins describe their public interactions as cordial and respectful, but such
accounts have done little to stem suspicions
among some Saudis that this apparently
amicable facade hides a more fractious relationship.
The elder prince, Mohammed bin Nayef, is a
widely respected veteran of Saudi politics while the younger royal is a relatively inexperienced but favored son of the king.
Although Saudis are well accustomed to
factionalizm among the Al Saud dynasty's
hundreds of princes, several well-connected
Saudis said the relationship between the two
men was simply too sensitive a subject to
discuss openly.
However, some did acknowledge hearing about underlying friction but refused to be any more specific.
Last week, King Salman removed Saad al-Jabri, an aide of the crown prince, from his role as a minister of state, a move that was not officially explained, and led to speculation among Saudis and Gulf-based diplomats that it reflected wider tension within the ruling elite.
There was no official comment to explain his
removal.
Harmony and stability at the top have rarely
been more important for Saudi Arabia as it
attempts to navigate regional conflict and the
economic fallout from tumbling crude prices
while managing leadership change.
Since he took power in January, King Salman
has overturned expectations of how the
kingdom conducts its business, changing the
line of succession, launching a military
operation in Yemen and endorsing an oil
strategy that has let prices fall.
That new approach appears to owe much to
the two Prince Mohammeds, who between them now control most levers of power via a pair of government supercommittees on security and the economy, while most other Al Saud members have been sidelined.
Observers heralded a departure from the
previous era to more pro-active policies after
years of paralysis, citing the power of the
princes.
DYNASTIC POLITICS
The prominence of the two Prince Mohammeds means that any moves at the top of the Saudi government, particularly any involving Al Saud members or close aides to either of Salman's named successors, will be closely watched.
The removal of Jabri, who even in 2006 was
described by U.S. diplomats in a Riyadh
embassy cable later released by WikiLeaks as
Mohammed bin Nayef's "go to" man on a range of issues and a key member of the prince's staff, was just such an event.
If the crown prince's other key aide, Khalid al-
Humaidan, who was made intelligence chief in
January, were replaced, for instance, then
speculation about friction at the top, and rumors about new changes in the line of succession, might grow.
Dynastic squabbling brought down a Saudi state in the 1880s. In the last century, King Saud's efforts to limit the line of succession to his own sons, cutting out brothers and nephews, contributed to the family forcing him from power in 1962, so such things are keenly watched.
Tension between the family's different wings
are usually open secrets, talked about in private and denied in public, while the Al Saud present an appearance of unity, an approach that has sometimes backfired by letting speculation flourish.
EXPERIENCE AND YOUTH
There were reassuring noises about the new
power structure. "I think it's a good working relationship. Necessity demands it, and Mohammed bin Nayef is a highly respected person and in this society there is a lot of deference to age," said Khaled al-Maeena, editor at large of the English-language daily Saudi Gazette.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, who has
also been interior minister since 2013, is close
to Washington, crushed an al Qaeda uprising
while running internal security a decade ago
and barely escaped assassination by a jihadist
suicide bomber in 2010.
As head of the security committee, he oversees most political issues, including anything relating to the kingdom's internal stability or regional position and its support for Syrian rebels.
When Salman placed him in the line of
succession as deputy crown prince on
assuming power in January, and then moved
him up another notch in April, it was no real
surprise given the interior minister's high profile and background in top jobs.
Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman,
by contrast, has enjoyed a dizzying rise since
his father became king and promoted him from
head of his personal court to defense minister
and then second-in-line, bypassing scores of
uncles and cousins.
He is in charge of a council tasked with
addressing long-term economic development
challenges, such as those posed by declining
crude revenue, and theoretically oversees
fiscal, energy, monetary and educational
policies.
That clear division of responsibilities, the 25-
year age gap between the two and Mohammed bin Nayef's lack of sons mean the pair would not necessarily be direct rivals for power because Mohammed bin Salman can count on a long run after his cousin.
A Saudi source, who declined to be named, said relations amongst the royals were good. "The great majority of the family is settled. The powerful princes are happy," the source said.
(Additional reporting by William Maclean in
Dubai; Editing by Dominic Evans)