Major Lake-Effect Snowstorm To Dump
Multiple Feet Of Snow In Buffalo,
Great Lakes Snowbelts



                                           



But there's a weather pattern setting up that looks much more impactful.

A sharp southward plunge of the jet stream will remain in place from eastern
Canada through the Midwest and Northeast. This will keep a pipeline of cold air
wide open from Canada across the Great Lakes.







That cold air will flow over the much warmer water of the Great Lakes. This contrast
of cold air over warmer lake water will generate bands of lake-effect snow along the
downwind shores of the lakes, known as the Great Lakes snowbelts, from western and
Upper Michigan to northern Indiana, northeast Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania and
in western and upstate New York.

This is a common pattern that usually sets up in late fall and early winter.

But there are reasons why this will be a more prolific snow event in some places.

First, the Great Lakes are very warm for mid-November, due in large part to one of the
warmest starts to November on record. Lake Ontario is the warmest it's been for
mid-November in at least 27 years, according to an analysis from NOAA shown below.
Lake Erie is at its second warmest for mid-November since the mid-1990s.




Lake Ontario water temperatures from 1995 through 2022. 2022,
shown in orange, has the warmest lake temperature on record
for November 14 of any year since 1995.
(NOAA)



The warmer the water, the more unstable the air is when coupled with the cold air flowing
over it. Air can then rise faster into the clouds and generate snowfall more efficiently.

Instability in this case could be so extreme it may manufacture heavy snowbands
accompanied with thunder and lightning, at times, producing several inches per hour snowfall rates.

Secondly, winds are expected to line up along the longest axis of both lakes Erie and Ontario.

When this happens, lake-effect snow takes the form of one solid, 100-plus-mile long band of
heavy snow as opposed to multiple bands of lighter snow.

Finally, this event will last for several days. That means if the single, long band of heavy snow
stalls over a given area, several feet of snow is likely to pile up.

The Forecast


Alerts

Lake-effect snow warnings are now in effect east and southeast of lakes Erie
and Ontario in western New York, northwest Pennsylvania and far northeast Ohio.
Those warnings include Buffalo and Watertown, New York, and Erie, Pennsylvania.

Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories are posted elsewhere,
including in parts of Michigan and northwest Indiana.


Major to extreme impacts are expected in some of the areas under warnings,
according to NOAA's Winter Storm Severity Index.






Timeline

In the Lake Erie snowbelt, an appetizer bout of lake effect already
delivered several inches of snowfall from northeast Ohio into northwest
Pennsylvania and southwest New York Wednesday night into early
Thursday. Up to 10 inches of snow fell south of Buffalo in
South Wales, New York.

Beginning Thursday night, winds will shift out of a more southwesterly
direction, producing that single, much heavier band of snow we alluded
to earlier into the Buffalo metro area. Snowfall rates in this band could
be up to three inches per hour and might be accompanied by thundersnow
at times through Friday night.

Saturday, that heavy snowband could shift north into Niagara Falls and
the north Buffalo metro before a cold front sweeps through on Sunday,
pushing that band south again before it finally fizzles.

Another strong band of snow is expected to form off Lake Ontario into areas
of upstate New York, starting over Oswego and the Tug Hill Plateau through
Thursday, then migrating north to near Watertown Thursday night through
the weekend before ending.



How Much Snow

Snowfall totals in multiple feet are expected in the Buffalo metro area,
as well as along parts of the Interstate 81 corridor of upstate New York
and the Tug Hill Plateau from this multi-day pummeling. Locally up to
3 or 4 feet of snow could fall in portions of the Buffalo metro area if a
band of heavy snow stalls out.

At least 6 inches of lake-effect snow is also likely along the I-90 corridor
into northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio east of downtown Cleveland,
over much of western Lower Michigan and the Lake Superior snowbelts
of Michigan's Upper Peninsula.

Travel will be treacherous, if not impossible, at times, along these stretches
with whiteout conditions within the heaviest snowbands.



Snowfall Forecast



Recent November Notorious Lake-Effect Storms

Eight years ago, Buffalo and western New York were also hammered
by a prolific, multi-day, lake-effect snowstorm.

Up to 88 inches of snow buried the Buffalo Southtowns,
a record for the region.

A 132-mile long section of the New York State Thruway (Interstate 90)
was shut down for several days.

"There were 14 fatalities with this storm, hundreds of major roof collapses
and structural failures, thousands of stranded motorists and scattered food
and gas shortages due to impassable roads," the National Weather Service
in Buffalo wrote in a post-storm summary.






In 2000, two feet of snow in the days leading up to Thanksgiving trapped thousands
on roads, in schools or businesses in what was considered the most disruptive storm
in the Buffalo metro since the infamous Blizzard of 1977,
according to the National Weather Service.

It's not certain this event will be a repeat of either of these major storms.
But it does have that potential.

You may want to change your travel plans in these areas during the height of the storm.
If you must travel, let others know about your plans and carry a winter survival kit in
your vehicle in case you become stranded.