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Brexit & potential “fallout”?
#1
I stay the heck away from politics, be they local or international (most news is just repetition and fear monger if, which does not sit well with my OCD)

That being said, I just got online and realized that the whole “brexit” thing has still been in transition this entire time (at one point I was hearing a lot about it and then it dropped off the news cycle for what seems like at least a year). At any rate, in hindsight, I see/understand why certain variables in my own life may have fluctuated or become less stable.

Is there anyone politically informed enough who knows anything about what implications this may have on cu$t0ms policies to or from the UK to the rest of the world? Would love some insight.
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#2
We have several English and others from that same area...

Surely having lived with and without that in place, maybe they can offer a clearer
insight as to what is really happening over yonder ...

All I can gather is, it's quite a freakin mess...

Ice
A True Friend
Freely Advises,
Justly Assists Readily,
Adventures Boldly,
Takes all Patiently,
Defends Courageously
And
Continues a Friend Unchangeably.

William Penn

[Image: rO7eOwh.jpg]
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#3
I certainly can’t give you the answer but I too have had the same question. We already go to such extreme lengths
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#4
Okay I am going to keep this very simple, and comeback later with a bit more detail.

To put it in one a couple of words NOT MUCH!

The UK carries on staying in the customs union and single market, trade under the same rules. Meaning freedom of movement for people carries on and free movement of goods.

BUT! We are under EU laws and jurisdictions and NO LONGER have any right to have a say on it!

As of the 31st Jan we officially left the European Union, and the 11 month transition period has begun where the government will use the next 11 months to negotiate a new relationship with the EU we have until the end of Dec 2020 to have a trade deal agreed! But nothing has gone smooth since the referendum result over 3 years ago so i would not be surprised if we keep on extending the transition period deadline!

The big changes will come after Dec 2020, IF the transition period has not been extended.

hope this helps, ask away guys!

QF
Success!
To laugh often and much, to win the respect of intelligent people and the affection of children, to earn the appreciation of honest critics and endure the betrayal of false friends, to appreciate beauty, to find the best in others, to leave the world a bit better, to know even one life has breathed easier because you have lived.
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#5
Thank you very much for the information, Quick Fix, I appreciate your insight(s) on the situation Smile
My hope is that it would not affect the current US political relations and put the UK in a more “unfriendly” position, but I highly doubt it, if anything maybe the opposite? Again, I’m politically ignorant, thanks.
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#6
(02-03-2020, 05:13 PM)Chinchillin777 Wrote: Thank you very much for the information,  Quick Fix, I appreciate your insight(s) on the situation Smile
My hope is that it would not affect the current US political relations and put the UK in a more “unfriendly” position, but I highly doubt it, if anything maybe the opposite? Again, I’m politically ignorant, thanks.

I wouldn't think the UK would be seen in an unfriendly way from the USA (obviously it's a bit different with the EU, since the UK has seriously tested its patience). The UK will want a close trading agreement with the USA. From a US perspective I'd think the changes would be more for big business, as they have traditionally used the UK as an English-speaking bridge between the USA and EU. They'll move their European headquarters from the UK into France or Germany.

But as QuickFix pointed out, there will be no practical change during the transition period. I tend to agree there's a good chance of that being extended, and maybe extended again. Turns out when you've been integrated into a political and economic union for many years that extracting yourself is like the world's most complicated divorce. I suppose it would be a bit like if California decided to leave the USA, how do you disentangle that?, who pays for what?, and what type of border do you have?, etc... It's not a perfect analogy, and most Americans I know are far more attached to the idea of the USA as a nation, rather than the EU which is a series of agreements between separate nations.

The whole thing is very complicated. I honestly think the UK would have found it easier and cheaper to have built and launched a British manned mission to the moon than negotiate Brexit!

The only substantial thing I'm aware of is that the UK are recruiting more people to work for customs. But I think that's because a harder border will exist between it and the EU, so they'll have to check more paperwork and passports. But the focus seems to be mostly about goods and regulatory standards, nothing suggests it is about what goes through the mail. If it does go in that direction, UK members of the forum would notice quite quickly as the number of deliveries dropped and the amount of "love letters" spiked.
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#7
(02-04-2020, 12:08 PM)barq- Wrote:
(02-03-2020, 05:13 PM)Chinchillin777 Wrote: Thank you very much for the information,  Quick Fix, I appreciate your insight(s) on the situation Smile
My hope is that it would not affect the current US political relations and put the UK in a more “unfriendly” position, but I highly doubt it, if anything maybe the opposite? Again, I’m politically ignorant, thanks.

I wouldn't think the UK would be seen in an unfriendly way from the USA (obviously it's a bit different with the EU, since the UK has seriously tested its patience). The UK will want a close trading agreement with the USA. From a US perspective I'd think the changes would be more for big business, as they have traditionally used the UK as an English-speaking bridge between the USA and EU. They'll move their European headquarters from the UK into France or Germany.

But as QuickFix pointed out, there will be no practical change during the transition period. I tend to agree there's a good chance of that being extended, and maybe extended again. Turns out when you've been integrated into a political and economic union for many years that extracting yourself is like the world's most complicated divorce. I suppose it would be a bit like if California decided to leave the USA, how do you disentangle that?, who pays for what?, and what type of border do you have?, etc... It's not a perfect analogy, and most Americans I know are far more attached to the idea of the USA as a nation, rather than the EU which is a series of agreements between separate nations.

The whole thing is very complicated. I honestly think the UK would have found it easier and cheaper to have built and launched a British manned mission to the moon than negotiate Brexit!

The only substantial thing I'm aware of is that the UK are recruiting more people to work for customs. But I think that's because a harder border will exist between it and the EU, so they'll have to check more paperwork and passports. But the focus seems to be mostly about goods and regulatory standards, nothing suggests it is about what goes through the mail. If it does go in that direction, UK members of the forum would notice quite quickly as the number of deliveries dropped and the amount of "love letters" spiked.
Barq, every new thread I read seems to have your fantastic insight. I’m new to this place and absorbing so much. Thank you
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#8
(02-05-2020, 11:01 AM)Doook Wrote: Barq, every new thread I read seems to have your fantastic insight. I’m new to this place and absorbing so much. Thank you

Thank you Doook, that's very nice of you to say.

I'll admit to being Brexit obsessed, but that's because I think it is a terrible idea. I have friends on both sides - some wanted to leave the EU because they believe in localism. Ok, fair enough, I respectfully disagree, but they aren't coming from a position of hatred for the "other". However nationalism is on the rise in the UK. Hate crimes that aren't obviously connected to the EU/Brexit jumped just after the referendum. For example, homophobic hate crime went up 150%... I guess it's all those Europeans flooding over here and stealing our jobs gay men... (Obviously I'm being ironic!)

The problems with having a referendum on the UK leaving is that it is a representative democracy. Furthermore a binary referendum is a very blunt instrument. The vote was a bit like having a referendum on whether to go out for a meal or not. Going out for food wins, but it's not clear what where people want to go and eat.

Basically it comes down to 1) pointless Brexit where the UK follows EU rules to continue trading but has no control over the rules (i.e. the total opposite of the "Take Back Control" campaign); 2) dramatic Brexit where the UK really does break from the EU at which point a whole load of manufacturing is in deep trouble.

So far the lost growth in GDP has been more expensive than the entire cost of membership since it joined in 1973. As you might have noticed I'm not a fan of the whole thing. In fact I'd say it is the most serious crisis for the UK since WWII. At this time the UK has technically left but in its transitional phase very little has changed. We can't fully judge the effects until this comes to some sort of conclusion.
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