COVID UPDATES. TIME TO DECIDE ABOUT SPREADING COVID

[Charon]

The daily death toll from COVID-19 on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday last week was greater than the number of Americans killed in the attack on Pearl Harbor.
Four of the deadliest days in U.S. history were reported last week
CBSNEWS.COM

   

[Charon]

Infected after 5 minutes, from 20 feet away: South Korea study shows coronavirus’ spread indoors...

Be careful.

[Charon]

Americans have 1-in-1,000 chance of dying from COVID-19 in next 6 months, expert says
By Lia EustachewichDecember 10, 2020 | 2:17pm | Updated
of dying from COVID in the next six months,
US citizen has a 1/1000 risk of dying of COVID in next six months

hxxps://nypost.com/2020/12/10/here-are-your-odds-of-dying-from-covid-in-the-next-six-months/
0:13
/
0:34






Sign up for our special edition newsletter to get a daily update on the coronavirus pandemic.

MORE ON:
CORONAVIRUS
New York to get 346K doses of Moderna vaccine by Christmas
US women nervous about fast rollout of COVID-19 vaccine, and that’s a problem: poll
Why COVID vaccine line-jumping is expected after first round of distribution
‘The country needs me:’ Cleaner in COVID-19 wards proud to fight pandemic
Americans have a 1-in-1,000 chance of dying of COVID-19 in the next six months, a Stanford University health expert said Thursday at a Food and Drug Administration hearing.

Dr. Steven Goodman, an associate dean at Stanford’s School of Medicine, based that probability off recent statistics showing roughly 285,000 deaths in the country over the last seven months and about 1,000 deaths a day.

“A randomly chosen US citizen has an average risk of dying from COVID in the next 6 months, that is by the end of May, of roughly 1 in 1,000 and the risk of hospitalization of roughly about 1 in 200,” Goodman told an FDA advisory committee at a virtual hearing.

“These numbers obviously vary widely by individual,” he said.

Goodman said the findings also don’t factor in Wednesday’s record mortality rate, when 3,000 daily deaths were reported for the first time.

The all-day hearing is being held by the FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee, which is weighing whether the benefits of Pfizer and BioNTech’s COVID-19 vaccine outweigh the risks — and it should be approved for emergency use.

SEE ALSO

US sets new single-day record with over 3,000 COVID-19 deaths
The panel of 23 health experts will vote at the end of the meeting.

The FDA will make the ultimate decision on whether to approve the drug, but the agency often follows the committee’s advice.

Goodman spoke about the ethics behind whether those who received a placebo in the study should be allowed to get the shots.

Pfizer has asked the FDA to allow it to administer the vaccine to volunteers who had been in the placebo group who request it.

But both the FDA and its advisory panel have expressed concerns that “unblinding” the trial would make it harder to continue collecting data on the vaccine’s long-term safety and effectiveness. They also say it would make it harder for companies still testing vaccines to conduct blinded trials, in which people don’t know if they got the experimental drug or a placebo.

Goodman suggested a blinded double crossover design, in which people who received the placebo would be offered the vaccine and those who got the vaccine would be offered the placebo. That way, he said, everybody eventually gets the vaccine without being tempted to leave the trial to get it elsewhere.

Health care workers prepare to rotate a COVID-19 patient on a ventilator at a hospital in Hutchinson, Kansas, last month.
Health care workers prepare to rotate a COVID-19 patient on a ventilator at a hospital in Hutchinson, Kansas, last month.
Callaghan O'Hare/Reuters
“The price we have to pay by comprising the trial would be too high and I don’t think we have the professional obligation to give them vaccine immediately,” he said.

[Charon]

A new strain of COVID-19 has been identified in the UK.
It could be fueling the “very sharp” spike in coronavirus cases in south-east England, Health Secretary Matt Hancock said.


hssps://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-new-strain-of-covid-in-uk-may-be-cause-of-case-spike-official-says-20201214-s74txnzqlbg6nasxlltvk3ytrm-story.html?fbclid=IwAR1YPmzjuzb0msGZNxmvTfhyIo8Ezmoxtss9vX6P8Kebwhv-W51s8YoP8BQ


*and people all posted that means the vaccine won't necessarily work on those with a mutated virus but i have been overwhelmed by new cases and new deaths and have not researched this at all yet* The covid forum is mostly the US and the people are dropping like flies. again.

[Charon]

Safe Social Distancing Alert: Long Streams of Virus-Laden Droplets Can Trail Behind Infected Individuals
TOPICS:American Institute Of PhysicsCOVID-19Fluid MechanicsInfectious DiseasesPublic Health
By AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS DECEMBER 15, 2020

Cough Generated Droplets Narrow Corridor
The cough-generated droplets from a walking individual disperse differently in a narrow corridor and an open space. In narrow corridors, the droplets are concentrated in a small bubble and are left further behind. Credit: Xiaolei Yang

Fast walking in narrow corridors can increase COVID-19 transmission risk.

Long streams of virus-laden droplets can trail behind infected individuals walking through a narrow corridor, impacting safe social distancing guidelines.

Computational simulations have been used to accurately predict airflow and droplet dispersal patterns in situations where COVID-19 might be spread. In the journal Physics of Fluids, by AIP Publishing, results show the importance of the shape of the space in modeling how virus-laden droplets move through the air.

The simulations are used to determine flow patterns behind a walking individual in spaces of different shape. The results reveal a higher transmission risk for children in some instances, such as behind quickly moving people in a long narrow hallway.

Previous investigations using this simulation technique have helped scientists understand the influence of objects, like glass barriers, windows, air conditioners, and toilets, on airflow patterns and virus spread. The previous simulations have usually assumed a large, open indoor space but have not considered the effect of nearby walls, like those that might exist in a narrow corridor.

Cough Generated Droplets Open Space
The cough-generated droplets from a walking individual disperse differently in a narrow corridor and an open space. In an open space, the droplets are dispersed in a large range attached to the person. Credit: Xiaolei Yang

If a person walking in a corridor coughs, their breath expels droplets that travel around and behind their body, forming a wake in the way a boat forms a wake in water as it travels. The investigation revealed the existence of a “re-circulation bubble” directly behind the person’s torso and a long wake streaming out behind them at approximately waist height.

“The flow patterns we found are strongly related to the shape of the human body,” said author Xiaolei Yang. “At 2 meters downstream, the wake is almost negligible at mouth height and leg height but is still visible at waist height.”

Once the airflow patterns were determined, the investigation modeled the dispersal of a cloud of droplets expelled from the simulated person’s mouth. The shape of the space surrounding the moving person is particularly critical for this part of the calculation.

Two types of dispersal modes were found. In one mode, the cloud of droplets detaches from the moving person and floats far behind that individual, creating a floating bubble of virus-laden droplets. In the other mode, the cloud is attached to the person’s back, trailing behind them like a tail as they move through the space.

Cloud of Droplets
In both modes, the cloud of droplets hovers at about half-height of the infected person before reaching the ground, indicating higher risk for children to inhale the droplets. Credit: Xiaolei Yang

“For the detached mode, the droplet concentration is much higher than for the attached mode, five seconds after a cough,” said Yang. “This poses a great challenge in determining a safe social distance in places like a very narrow corridor, where a person may inhale viral droplets even if the patient is far in front of him or her.”

The danger is particularly great for children, since in both modes, the cloud of droplets hovers at a distance above the ground that is about half the height of the infected person — in other words, at mouth level for children.

Reference: “Effects of space sizes on the dispersion of cough-generated droplets from a walking person” by Zhaobin Li, Hongping Wang, Xinlei Zhang, Ting Wu and Xiaolei Yang, 15 December 2020, Physics of Fluids.

hxxps://scitechdaily.com/safe-social-distancing-alert-long-streams-of-virus-laden-droplets-can-trail-behind-infected-individuals/

[Charon]

OK, i knew this thing had severely mutated based on the number of people suddenly infected. people whom did not go out. no underlying conditions.

and, they don't realize they are about to die.

So, EU and The UK won't allow travel for about two days. Due to increased cases due to a variation of the virus. So, now, they inform us that this new variation of covid is seventy per cent more infectious than other version was.  I cannot find the reference for that now. And I figured out something was up due to the population reporting covid symptoms. Dying suddenly. And they think they can go to healthcare the next day. But they are dead. In the ERs cuz hospitals are filling up.

I am told that if one sends them by ambulance, the patient has to be admitted. It is harder than hell to get admitted to hospitals in hard hit areas.


Chris Whitty confirms new Covid strain IS more contagious ...www.dailymail.co.uk › news › article-9070683 › Chris-...
1 day ago — ... strain is 70% MORE infectious and makes up 60% of new cases in London ... as it was revealed the variant is 70 per cent more infectious than others. ... revealing there was no hard evidence that this version could spread ..

Based on the uptick in cases and people requesting prayer and comfort, it is very apparent that something had changed. So now the concern is will the current vaccine work against new version of covid?

Just sayin. It is seventy per cent more infectious.

[Levi517]

Many countries have closed off flights to and from the UK because of the new strain, including Canada. I’m sure US will do the same ASAP. Doesn’t matter...this mutation or others will spread irregardless. So far the good news is that you don’t get more seriously ill and the vaccine still works. Let’s hope and pray that continues.

[happyvibe]

I agree! Everyone I turn on the news I get more discouraged. I try to stay optimistic, it’s a great thing that there are two vaccines out there but then you see this UK news and it’s hard not to feel like the sky is falling in again

Stay safe all!

[Levi517]

New South African variant too. Like the UK one, it’s much more infectious. Currently being tested to see if the vaccines work. Stay tuned.

[IceWizard]

Flu Season Numbers for 2020/21

Read the early 2020/2021 flu season numbers, as well
as the final 2019/2020 flu season numbers.



Dec. 21, 2020 • 5  min read

*As of the most recent update from the CDC ending Week 50, flu season 2020/2021
remains lower than usual for this time of year in all major regions of the United States.
This article will be updated as numbers are reported.






Flu 2020/21

Each flu season, the CDC tracks a few important metrics that help tell the story of how
severe the current flu season is compared to previous seasons.
Here are a few numbers to track.

PIC Mortality -
The PIC mortality rate is the rate of deaths attributed to pneumonia,
influenza, or COVID-19. In a non-COVID year, this is called P&I (pneumonia and influenza).
This year's PIC rate is 13.3% which is above the epidemic threshold of 6.6%.
According to the CDC, among the 2,897 PIC deaths reported for the week, 1,921 had
COVID-19 listed as an underlying or contributing cause of death on the death certificate
and two listed influenza, indicating that the current increase in PIC mortality is due
primarily to COVID-19 and not influenza.

Hospitalization Rates -
Hospitalization rates are the number of hospitalizations based on
the number of positive cases. Hospitalization rates will be presented once case counts
increase to a level that produces stable rates. A total of 75 laboratory-confirmed
influenza-associated hospitalizations were reported by FluSurv-NET sites between
October 1, 2020 and December 12, 2020 which is lower than average for this point in
the season and comparable to counts seen at this point during the 2011-12 season.

Pediatric Deaths -
Pediatric deaths are the number of deaths of people under the age of 18. In 2019/20,
there were 195 pediatric deaths. There has been one pediatric death during the
2020/21 season so far.


New York State


In New York State for the most current week of reporting ending December 12, laboratories
tested 17,707 specimens for influenza, of which 174 (1%) were positive, a 39% decrease
over the previous week, according to the New York State Department of Health. The number
of patients hospitalized with influenza was 41, a 37% increase over the previous week.

Monroe County

There have been 27 cases of laboratory-confirmed influenza in Monroe County up to the
week ending December 19. This equals a 1.7% positivity rate, according to the
New York State DOH.


Final 2019/20 Flu Numbers

The final data on flu season 2019/2020 was released by the CDC in April as COVID-19
continued to spread throughout the United States.

Between October 1, 2019 and April 4, 2020, the flu resulted in:


39 to 56 million illnesses
410,000 to 740,000 hospitalizations
24,000 to 62,000 deaths
195 pediatric deaths


Health officials are urging people to get their flu vaccine as soon as possible this year
to prevent the spread of flu amidst the coronavirus pandemic. Contact your primary
care provider to schedule your flu shot or call your local pharmacy for more information.



New York State


New York State reported 157,758 positive cases between October 1 2019 and
April 4, 2020. In Monroe County, NY, there were 17 deaths and 5,775 confirmed
cases since October 1. Of those confirmed cases, 763 resulted in hospitalization.


Hospitalization rate


A total of 19,713 influenza-related hospitalizations were reported between October 1, 2019
and March 28, 2020. 72% were associated with Influenza A and 27% were Influenza B,
which is a reversal of early season numbers when Influenza B was more dominant.

The overall cumulative hospitalization rate was 67.9 per 100,000 population over the same
time period. This number is higher than all recent seasons during the same time period,
except for the 2017-18 season. Hospitalization rates in children aged 0-4 years old and
adults 18-49 years old are the highest on record according to the CDC, surpassing the rate
reported during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.



Influenza A vs. Influenza B


Both strains of influenza cause typical flu symptoms, like fever, fatigue, body aches, chills,
sore throat, and cough. It’s unlikely patients would be able to tell the difference between
A or B without a lab test. However, Influenza B is slower to develop, which is why it typically
appears later in the season. It’s also more likely to impact children and younger adults instead
of the elderly. This could explain why more people were infected with the flu earlier in the
year over previous years, but the number of hospitalizations and deaths were lower.


Influenza B appeared earlier in 2020


In 2020, Influenza B appeared earlier than usual. Traditionally, Influenza A appears earlier
than Influenza B, but that was not the case to begin 2020. Roughly 70% of early flu cases
were Influenza B and about 30% were been caused by Influenza A, according to the CDC.




Was the flu vaccine effective in 2020?


The flu shot is developed at the start of each season to protect from strains of the flu.
More than 170 million doses of the flu vaccine were administered to fight the 2019/2020
flu virus. At the beginning of the year, the vaccine reduced doctor's visits by 45% overall
and 55% in children, but rates among children and young adults were higher earlier in
the season compared to recent seasons.

"The vaccine has significantly reduced medical visits associated with influenza so far this season,"
the CDC announced in its February 21 report.

If you have already received your vaccine for the 2020/2021 season, you don’t need to get
a second shot--except children under the age of 9 who are getting vaccinated for the first time.

“While it’s possible to get the flu even if you get the shot, vaccination reduces your risk of
getting sick and may lessen the severity of the symptoms if you do,” explained the CDC's
Lynnette Brammer.