The Oscars 2018 - what do you think?

[barq2]

Which movie do you think will win?
Which movie would you like to win?

I've just taken the Best Picture and Best Director categories, which feels a bit mean for cinematography, editing, music, and of course the actors. By all means add those in if you think someone deserves a shout for a particular movie.

Best Picture:
“Call Me by Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“Phantom Thread”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Director:
"Dunkirk" Christopher Nolan
“Get Out,” Jordan Peele
"Lady Bird" Greta Gerwig
“Phantom Thread,” Paul Thomas Anderson
“The Shape of Water,” Guillermo del Toro


My answers... I think Best Picture will go to "Lady Bird" and Best Director will go to Christopher Nolan for "Dunkirk".

In a way Dunkirk came out the wrong year. If the voters are now more conscious of #MeToo then such a male film could be a problem. It has a serious subject matter, a strong ensemble cast, stripped back structure, visually stunning, and lastly a sense that maybe it was Nolan's "time" to win. But I think a lot of that ebbed away in the time since that movie came out (early last summer). Any other year and I'd have put my money on Dunkirk as best picture, and for half the year it did feel like the one to beat, but lots of other good movies came out. Dunkirk is a very Nolan film, in that it plays with time and he gets to do his IMAX stuff. It was incredibly hands on direction and thats why I think it will be best director, not best picture. If I'm wrong then you'll see Dunkirk pick up consolation prizes for technical stuff.

Critics seem to like Lady Bird, where as some of the other titles are more divisive. It is a really impressive list of movies, and Gary Oldman must be dead cert for best actor in Darkest Hour. The Shape of Water could win, but whilst the reviews have been good there are critics too. A win in this category is often the film that the most people like, rather than the one people like the most. It is all in the numbers.

What is missing from the nominations? Any movies you are shocked didn't make it to nomination? For anyone who has seen Bladerunner, should that have made the list? Which of the nominations aren't that great in your opinion?

[Naomi]

From what I've been reading, people think it's going to be a face off between Gary Oldman and Daniel Day Lewis for best actor. On an unrelated note, I am SO happy to see a horror movie get a nomination. I don't think Get Out will win, but hey, it's something.

[Iloveaparade]

I'm rooting for Great Gerwig - best director would be nice for her to win
rooting for lady bird to run away with an underdog win for best picture too!!
but really liked the shape of water...maybe too "out there" to win though...
I like almost anything Michael Shannon is in to be honest

[Naomi]

Lady Bird is really good, I'd be happy with that film taking the win. I haven't seen the Shape of Water yet, I'll have to add that to the list.

[barq2]

That's a good point about Get Out. Horror movies don't tend to win - the last I can think of would be Silence of the Lambs (was that early 90s?). Some horror films are just nasty like the "torture porn" genre, but the best horror films tend to reflect a real social issue. I've yet to see Get Out, but based on what everyone says I'll watch it ASAP. It sounds like there is a serious societal message beneath the horror.

I must admit part of me wants Lady Bird to win because female directors have been overlooked for years. But that is more of a political issue than simply the quality of the film. But I do think representation and #MeToo must be on the Oscar voters' minds. When Moonlight won it was pre #MeToo, but possibly indicated the voters leaning towards the representation issue. That said, I think Moonlight was an incredibly well shot and directed movie that totally deserved to win.